BIZ-003 · Business Value

Separate forecasts from actuals

• Baseline
• IF
• OR
• THEN
• ELSE

The decision

• IF
  • search volume, CTR, conversion, or revenue is estimated
• THEN
  • label the output as a forecast and record every assumption
• ELSE
  • use observed query, conversion, revenue, and margin data

Primary metric

forecast error

Guardrail

confidence interval, source age

Reason

Makes the decision explicit, measurable, and reversible where possible.

LAKA levels

• Baseline

Operators

• IF
• OR
• THEN
• ELSE

Governs gates

• demand
• business value

Source

04-IF-ELSE-AND-OR-RULEBOOK.md — BIZ-003 — Separate forecasts from actuals

The other eleven rules in Business Value

• BIZ-001 Define value before volume IF the program has no defined qualified business event Baseline
• BIZ-002 Traffic is diagnostic, not the north star IF organic traffic increases AND qualified conversions or margin do not Baseline
• BIZ-004 Respect fulfillment capacity IF expected qualified demand exceeds delivery or sales capacity Structural
• BIZ-005 Model offers separately IF different offers have materially different audiences, margins, sales cycles, or qualification rules Structural
• BIZ-006 Count assisted value carefully IF an informational asset rarely receives last-click conversions but appears in qualified journeys Baseline
• BIZ-007 Split branded and non-branded demand IF brand familiarity materially changes intent, CTR, or conversion Baseline
• BIZ-008 Include retention and expansion IF organic search serves existing customers, support, renewal, or repeat purchase tasks Major
• BIZ-009 Raise evidence thresholds for high stakes IF the topic can materially affect health, money, safety, legal rights, or major decisions Major
• BIZ-010 Resolve competing goals explicitly IF traffic, lead quality, margin, brand, retention, and learning objectives conflict Baseline
• BIZ-011 Allocate by marginal value IF multiple valid initiatives compete for limited resources Baseline
• BIZ-012 Use economic stop rules IF expected remaining incremental value is below expected cost OR risk exceeds tolerance Baseline