Measurement and Experiment System

BUSINESS OUTCOMES
DIAGNOSTIC OUTCOMES
SYSTEM STATES
INTERVENTIONS
CONTEXT
UNCERTAINTY

ranking ↑
does not automatically imply
qualified value ↑

qualified leads
sales
subscription starts
retained customers
expansion revenue
support value
contribution margin
customer lifetime value

task completion
next-step action
assessment completion
demo request
quote request
trial start
qualified form
return visit
renewal action
referral/review

impressions
search appearances
average position / rank distribution
clicks
CTR
landing sessions
branded demand
non-branded demand

query-cluster coverage
canonical ownership
internal in-links
click depth
orphan state
qualified referring domains
content/evidence completeness
freshness

discoverable
crawlable
renderable
canonicalized
indexable
indexed
retrievable
valid structured data
field performance

ACTUAL ORGANIC CONTRIBUTION
=
Σ(
  attributed organic conversions
  × contribution margin per conversion
)
− attributable SEO operating cost

INCREMENTAL LIFT
=
(Post_treatment − Pre_treatment)
−
(Post_control − Pre_control)

EXPECTED VALUE
=
Σ(
  demand estimate
  × probability of eligibility
  × probability of useful visibility
  × expected CTR
  × expected qualified conversion rate
  × contribution margin
)
− expected cost

VALUE-WEIGHTED VISIBILITY
=
Σ(
  query opportunity value
  × observed visibility weight
)
/
Σ(query opportunity value)

CTR RESIDUAL
=
Observed CTR
− Expected CTR(
    position,
    device,
    country,
    brand class,
    query class,
    search appearance
  )

QUALIFIED ORGANIC VALUE
=
organic value events
× qualification probability
× contribution margin

OPPORTUNITY SCORE
=
(
  demand confidence
  × business fit
  × task value
  × information advantage
  × attainable response gap
  × conversion value
  × evidence confidence
)
/
(
  effort
  × risk
  × maintenance burden
  × time to learning
)

ELIGIBLE CANONICAL COVERAGE
=
priority canonical URLs that are eligible and indexed
/
all priority canonical URLs intended for indexing

CANONICAL AGREEMENT
=
URLs where intended/declarative canonical agrees with observed selected canonical
/
evaluated duplicate or canonical URLs

DOMINANT URL SHARE
=
largest URL impression share for cluster
/
total cluster impressions

URL ENTROPY
=
−Σ(p_url × ln(p_url))

PRIORITY ORPHAN RATE
=
priority pages with no useful crawlable internal in-link
/
all priority pages

WEIGHTED CLICK DEPTH
=
Σ(page business weight × page click depth)
/
Σ(page business weight)

QUALIFIED LINK RATE
=
retained relevant editorial referring domains
/
all acquired referring domains

date
site_id
cluster_id
query
canonical_url
country
device
search_type
search_appearance
brand_class
change_id

impressions
clicks
ctr
average_position
organic_sessions
task_completions
next_actions
qualified_leads
sales
revenue
contribution_margin

observation_time
url
status_code
robots_allowed
render_success
declared_canonical
selected_canonical
index_state
sitemap_state
internal_inlinks
click_depth
field_lcp
field_inp
field_cls
structured_data_state

change_id
object_type
object_id
laka_level
hypothesis
mechanism
owner
start_time
end_time
rollback_state
primary_metric
guardrails
decision_rule

1. Verify data collection.
2. Define treatment object and exposure.
3. Record at least the available stable pre-period.
4. Record query mix, device, country, brand class, and seasonality.
5. Record technical eligibility.
6. Record current page and graph state.
7. Record current business value.
8. Assign change ID.
9. Predefine primary metric and guardrails.
10. State minimum exposure and review rule.

IF [INTERVENTION]
is applied to [OBJECT]
under [CONDITIONS],
THEN [PRIMARY METRIC]
will change in [DIRECTION]
because [MECHANISM],
while [GUARDRAILS]
remain within [THRESHOLDS].

IF the title proposition for the Calgary web design cost guide
is rewritten to state the year, location, and estimator benefit,
THEN position-adjusted organic CTR will increase
because relevance and expected utility become clearer,
while qualified assessment rate does not decline by more than 10%.

Experiment ID:
Object:
Conditions:
Action:
Tools:
Resources:
Expected outcome:
Feedback source:
Constraints:
Value:
Failure mode:

LAKA level:
Magnitude:
Rate:
Direction:
Scope:
Depth:
Duration:
Frequency:
Acceleration:
Variability:
Detectability:
Reversibility:
Propagation:
Amplification:
Accumulation:

Primary metric:
Baseline:
Treatment scope:
Comparison:
Minimum exposure:
Decision rule:
Guardrails:
Rollback:
Owner:

CONTINUE
EXPAND
REVISE
REVERSE
ESCALATE
RETIRE
MONITOR

IF evidence is positive
AND guardrails pass
AND additional exposure is needed
THEN continue.

IF positive effect is credible
AND mechanism is transferable
AND capacity permits
THEN expand to a defined cohort.

IF mechanism appears valid
BUT implementation is weak or guardrails fail mildly
THEN revise.

IF primary outcome declines materially
OR a critical guardrail fails
AND rollback is feasible
THEN reverse.

IF the diagnosed failure is deeper than the current LAKA level
AND expected value still exceeds cost
THEN escalate.

IF remaining value is low
OR maintenance/risk is too high
OR the asset has no distinct task
THEN consolidate, redirect, noindex, archive, or remove appropriately.

Randomized controlled test
> matched page/cluster control
> staggered rollout
> difference-in-differences
> interrupted time series
> before/after with context controls
> directional observation

minimum crawl confirmation
minimum index confirmation
minimum impressions
minimum qualified sessions
minimum conversions
minimum full business cycle

incremental organic contribution margin
qualified organic conversions
value-weighted non-brand clicks
value-weighted target-cluster visibility
eligible canonical coverage

cluster impressions
new query families
branded vs non-branded
journey state
audience/offer
country/device
value-weighted demand

canonical owner
rank distribution
CTR residual
task completion
next-action conversion
freshness
information/evidence score

status correctness
render parity
canonical agreement
index eligibility
sitemap coverage
orphan rate
click depth
field CWV exposure
structured data validity

qualified new/lost referring domains
relevance
target page
placement type
retention
brand-demand lift
assisted value

change ID
LAKA level
status
primary metric
effect estimate
uncertainty
guardrails
decision
learning

DO NOT:
count indexed pages as success without value;
treat average position as a precise rank;
use a single sitewide CTR benchmark;
equate bounce with failure for every task;
equate tool authority scores with Google internals;
claim revenue from a forecast;
attribute all movement to the most recent change;
ignore branded demand created by other channels;
optimize event count rather than user state;
continue an experiment without a stop rule.

Which clusters created the most qualified value?
Which assets lost demand or eligibility?
Which query families are emerging?
Where is the intended canonical not dominant?
Which formats improve task completion?
Which evidence earns links or branded demand?
Which next actions produce quality, not merely volume?
Which technical failures block the most value?
Which LAKA level produced the best value per effort?
Which assumptions were disproved?
What should the generator weight differently next month?